California gubernatorial recall election: September 2021

California voters have already received ballots for the September 14 recall election. Ballots show two questions:

1. Should Governor Gavin Newsom be recalled? (Requires a simple majority.)
2. If Newsom is recalled, who should replace him? (Whoever of the 46 candidates receives the most votes.)

The California Democratic Party is telling voters to:

Fill out your ballot by voting NO on the first question and leaving the second question blank.

Do not disenfranchise yourself by following this advice. Betting markets give Newsom a one in four chance of being recalled, in which case our next governor, and possibly our next senator (given the governor can appoint Senate replacements), will be determined by voters’ response to the second question.

This is a terrible system that could put someone with under 20% of the vote in charge of the world’s fifth largest economy. It needs reform, but in the meantime, abstaining doesn’t help.