Replacement Governor
If the recall succeeds, Paffrath is both the strongest major candidate and most viable to prevent a Governor Elder.
Bogosian’s analysis shows that Kevin Paffrath is the strongest viable replacement, and that Larry Elder would do significant damage as governor.
As of this writing, game theory pushes toward Paffrath as well. Betting markets currently consider the replacement election a two-candidate race between Larry Elder and Kevin Paffrath. While the polls show John Cox and Kevin Faulconer trailing Paffrath, and Paffrath a fair distance behind Elder, bettors apparently believe that the two parties will consolidate around their respective front-runners.
This seems plausible to me, though in case something changes, I’m waiting to mark question two on my ballot and mail it in. If, for example, Kevin Faulconer had the best chance of beating Larry Elder, he could be worth voting for instead.
For now, Paffrath is both the strongest major candidate and the most viable candidate to keep Larry Elder out of the governor’s mansion, so Democrats should hold their nose and rally around the YouTube landlord.
These recommendations are my own, and do not reflect positions of organizations I’m associated with.