Governor

Governor Gavin Newsom has disappointed me. He’s been lukewarm on housing bills that would achieve the ambitious goals he ran on, and his budget this year calls for an atrocious $11 billion in vehicle subsidies, between cutting the gas tax (which I’ve fought) and giving money to vehicle owners (which I’ve researched). Unfortunately, I wouldn’t trust any of his 25 challengers with managing the world’s fifth-largest economy.

The closest is Michael Shellenberger, who describes himself as a “Homelessness Policy Advocate” on the ballot, but who is probably best known as a nuclear energy advocate. In the 2018 primary, I would have voted for Shellenberger on the issues, but instead chose to vote strategically for the number-two-polling Democrat to ensure a Democrat won the general (it didn’t work, but Newsom won handily anyway). Back then, Shellenberger won me over by being the only candidate to support SB 827, the failed state bill that would have legalized apartments near transit, and taking on special interests by advocating reforms to CEQA, pensions, and teacher pay.

Today, Shellenberger has, let’s say, leaned into controversy. His latest project was a book titled “San Fransicko”, about crime and homelessness in the state’s densest city. His campaign website riffs on these themes too, with tropes about us inviting homeless people, but fundamentally I think blaming homelessness on anything but our housing shortage is empirically wrong---by a large margin. Focusing his ire on the state’s densest city also risks implying that density itself is the problem.

As Scott Alexander said in his review of all 26 candidates, I am really split on this guy. From a pure consequentialist perspective, even if all Shellenberger did was keep the Diablo Canyon nuclear plant open, it would plausibly have a larger positive impact than the marginal homelessness policy changes a governor can make (it’s mostly local, except funding, which has to go somewhere). If he could also deliver on more housing, streamlining, public finance, and educator incentives, it would be well worth basically any other problems he might cause. But I doubt he could deliver on all that, and I worry his demeanor would get weaponized by those who oppose his goals. His shift from pragmatist to anti-lefty may feel justified, but it makes me wonder how he could evolve in the future.

To be clear, none of this matters. In November, Newsom will face a Republican, either GOP-endorsed Brian Dahle or high-fundraising Jenny Rae Le Roux, and Newsom will win. The ideas of 2018 Mike Shellenberger (he’s still in there) deserve more attention. But this state is too important to risk; go with the known quantity.